Whither the Bounce?

It's there in all the polls. Or should I say, it's not there in all the polls anymore. Where'd it go?

Here's one crack at answering the question.

Joe-Joe the Clown #3

Everybody's fan!

Hitting back and Hard

Senator McCain came out swinging today on the economic issues of the week. After seeing the slim lead of the last two weeks evaporate, McCain hit Obama square in the puss today on the market meltdown, Fannie and Freddie and his lack of...well, everything:

Top aides to Republican John McCain are claiming Democrat Barack Obama and his advisers are exploiting Wall Street's financial problems for political gain.

Ouch.

Ouch, again:

I'm happy to be introduced by Governor Palin, but I can't wait until I introduce her to Washington. Let me offer an advance warning to the big spending, greedy, do nothing, me first, country second crowd in Washington and on Wall Street: change is coming.

We need reform in Washington and on Wall Street. The financial markets are in crisis. Times are tough. Enormous strain is being put on working families and individuals in America. I know that the events unfolding can be difficult to understand for many Americans. The dominos that we have seen fall this week began with the corruption and manipulation of our home loan system. The reason this crisis started was the abuses that took place within our home loan agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and within our home loan system.

Two years ago I warned this Administration and Congress that regulations for our home loan agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, needed to be fixed…

But nothing was done.

Senator Obama talks a tough game on the financial markets but the facts tell a different story. He took more money from Fannie and Freddie than any Senator but the Democratic chairman of the committee that regulates them. He put Fannie Mae's CEO who helped create this disaster in charge of finding his Vice President. Fannie's former General Counsel is a senior advisor to his campaign. Whose side do you think he is on? When I pushed legislation to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Senator Obama was silent. He didn't lift a hand to avert this crisis. While the leaders of Fannie and Freddie were lining the pockets of his campaign, they were sowing the seeds of the financial crisis we see today and enriching themselves with millions of dollars in payments. That's not change, that's what's broken in Washington.

There was no transparency into the books of Wall Street banks. Banks and brokers took on huge amounts of debt and they hid the riskiest investments. Mismanagement and greed became the operating standard while regulators were asleep at the switch.

The primary regulator of Wall Street, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) kept in place trading rules that let speculators and hedge funds turn our markets into a casino. They allowed naked short selling -- which simply means that you can sell stock without ever owning it. They eliminated last year the uptick rule that has protected investors for 70 years. Speculators pounded the shares of even good companies into the ground.

The Chairman of the SEC serves at the appointment of the President and has betrayed the public's trust. If I were President today, I would fire him.

We cannot wait any longer for more failures in our financial system. Structures like the resolution trust corporation that dealt with the failed savings and loan industry were designed to clean up the system and worked. Today we need a plan that doesn't wait until the system fails. I am calling for the creation of the mortgage and financial institutions trust – the MFI. The priorities of this trust will be to work with the private sector and regulators to identify institutions that are weak and take remedies to strengthen them before they become insolvent. For troubled institutions this will provide an orderly process through which to identify bad loans and eventually sell them.

This will get the treasury and other financial regulatory authorities in a proactive position instead of reacting in a crisis mode to one situation after the other. The MFI will enhance investor and market confidence, benefit sound financial institutions, assist troubled institutions and protect our financial system, while minimizing taxpayer exposure. Tomorrow I will be talking in greater detail about the crisis facing our markets and what I will do as President to fix this crisis and get our economy moving again.

Senator Obama has never made the kind tough reform we need today. His idea of reform is what his party leaders in Congress order him to do. We tried for bipartisan ethics reform and he walked away from it because his bosses didn't want real change. I know how to make the change that Senator Obama and this Congress is afraid of. I've fought both parties to shake up up Washington and I'm going to do it as President.

Those same Congressional leaders who give Senator Obama his marching orders are now saying that this mess isn't their fault and they aren't going to take any action on this crisis until after the election. Senator Obama's own advisers are saying that crisis will benefit him politically. My friends, that is the kind of me-first, country-second politics that are broken in Washington. My opponent sees an economic crisis as a political opportunity instead of a time to lead. Senator Obama isn't change, he's part of the problem with Washington.

When AIG was bailed out, I didn't like it, but I understood it needed to be done to protect hard working Americans with insurance policies and annuities. Senator Obama didn't take a position. On the biggest issue of the day, he didn't know what to think. He may not realize it, but you don't get to vote present as President of the United States.

While Senator Obama and Congressional leaders don't know what to think about the current crisis, we know what their plans are for the economy. Today Senator Obama's running mate said that raising taxes is patriotic. Raising taxes in a tough economy isn't patriotic. It's not a badge of honor. It's just dumb policy. The billions in tax increases that Senator Obama is proposing would kill even more jobs during tough economic times. I'm not going to let that happen.

I have seen tough times before. I know how to shake-up Wall Street and Washington. I will get this economy moving. I will lead us through this crisis by fighting for you, and when I am President we will be stronger than ever before.

Go to Jail...

Do not collect $200. Go directly to Jail.

The hacking of Sarah Palin's private email and posting of all kinds of private information made quite the stir yesterday. Regardless what you might think of the wisdom of a public figure using such an account, there is no getting around the fact that the hacker is in deep you-know-what:

The simplicity of the attack, of course, makes it no less illegal.

Come to learn that the prime suspect is the son of a Tennessee State Representative:

State Rep. Mike Kernell confirmed Thursday that his son, a University of Tennessee-Knoxville student, is at the center of heated Internet discussion into the hacking of the personal e-mail of vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

Kernell, a Memphis Democrat, confirmed that it is his 20-year-old son, David, who is being widely named on Internet blogs and chatrooms in connection with an unfolding story about Palin's hacked e-mail accounts.

If in fact it is Kernell, he can only blame himself. As the Wired blog post notes, the hacker couldn't help but talk about it:

A person claiming to be the hacker who obtained access to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's private Yahoo e-mail on Tuesday has posted a supposed first-person account of the hack, revealing the relatively simple steps he says he took to crack the private e-mail of the Republican vice-presidential candidate.

The story was briefly posted Wednesday to the 4chan forum where the hack first surfaced. Bloggers have connected the handle of the poster, "Rubico," to an e-mail address, and tentatively identified the owner as a college student in Tennessee.

Could be a short-trip from college student to felon. All because he couldn't help himself.

Sadly, I've noticed that most of the angry left that you find in all kinds of holes throughout the internet share that same characteristic. For more proof just read this bit of insanity.

Of Peaks & Valleys

McCain and Palin have peaked...? I'd have been more concerned by the actual analysis had it come from somebody whose candidate hadn't lost every Presidential bid he's been involved in.

Joe-Joe the Clown #2

This hasn't made it's way to the GOP.com Gaffe Tracker yet...not sure why; it's an instant hit! From ABC's Political Radar Blog:

ABC News' Matthew Jaffe reports: Sen. Barack Obama's, D-Ill., vice presidential nominee, Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., Wednesday said that Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., might have been a better pick for the position than him.

At a rally in Nashua, N.H., a man in the audience told Biden how glad he was that Obama picked him over Hillary, "not because she's a woman, but because, look at the things she did in the past."

"Make no mistake about this," Biden responded. "Hillary Clinton is as qualified or more qualified than I am to be vice president of the United States of America. Let’s get that straight. She’s a truly close personal friend, she is qualified to be president of the United States of America, she’s easily qualified to be vice president of the United States of America, and quite frankly, it might have been a better pick than me. But she’s first rate, I mean that sincerely, she’s first rate, so let’s get that straight."

Joe--not to be outdone by everybody's favorite out-of-place VP hopeful--let's fly with one for the ages.

It's the Momentum, Stupid

It's everywhere in the polls...

The RealClearPolitics Average now has McCain up 2.4%. Small, yes. Statistically speaking, insignificant. But the real story is the direction. It's all one-way.

This image was pilfered from an Ann Althouse post and graphs one particular question from a Gallup poll. It's there too.

They hate her and we love her

Because she's real. The more I watch, read, listen and think about it that's what it boils down to for me.

She connects because she's real and in inimitable Democrat fashion, the Obama campaign and many of it's supporters are completely blind to the 'L' factor and it's role in presidential campaigns. Likability is a huge part of how and why Reagan won two blowout electoral contests; it's why we didn't elect the technocrat Michael Dukakis and most recently it's why President Kerry is not running for re-election as an American majority refused to be lectured incessantly by such an unlikable boor, despite what they thought of his policy views and positions.

She has it and in spades.

A Big One?

Has Senator Obama possibly stepped in it today? I suppose it depends on who you ask but Instapundit has a roundup speaking to comments that Obama made that many feel were very...unflattering...(at best) about Governor Palin:

DID OBAMA MEAN TO CALL SARAH PALIN A PIG? It's probably just a slip, but . . . "The crowd apparently took the 'lipstick' line as a reference to Palin."

Reader David Schlosser emails: "This will endear him to all those disaffected Hillary voters." And former Massachusetts Gov. Jane Swift is calling on Obama to apologize.

All I can say is, some pig.

UPDATE: "Lipstick on a trainwreck."

Plus, Tom Spaulding: "This is a major gaffe from Obama."

ANOTHER UPDATE: Marc Ambinder doesn't think Obama was talking about Palin. But reader Mark Martin emails: "This was just plain stupid on Senator Obama's part. It must be due to Karl Rove mind rays or something."

MORE: A reader emails: "Surely a man smart enough to be elected president should have foreseen how these remarks would be taken. Don’t Harvard law grads know the impact of words?" Everybody stumbles now and then. I say, don't make any more of it than if McCain had said something similar.

On the other hand, reader Alin Corle emails: "I think if you look at the entire quote, you realize that Obama was referring to Palin in the 'pig' comment. In the next phrase, as reported by Politico.com, Obama referred to 'old fish' wrapped in a paper of change that still stinks, a clear personal attack on McCain. I think both comments taken together are quite outrageous."

The reader's point about Harvard law grads goes straight to the key point; for all his articulate, intelligent, bright-guy labels it doesn't show when you put him in front of a microphone sans flash cards. If any of the old-guard Republican strategists were still in the game, this is the kind of thing--in type if not exactly--that could be turned into a Dukakis-in-the-tank moment.

Stay tuned.

Memo to Andrew Sullivan

Open memo to the once-respected and still-talented Andrew Sullivan, latest of the Atlantic.

Dear Andrew,

In the immortal words of Bat Thumb: "You're Insane!"

A Beautiful Trap

Juan Williams' response this morning to Chris Wallace's question about Sarah Palin's experience on this week's Fox News Sunday underscores the absolute brilliance of Senator McCain's VP choice.

Every time they attack her experience it can't help but blow back straight to Obama's. The exchange: WALLACE: Juan, you know, as you saw, I had a go-round with Rick Davis on the question of when is she going to answer questions. Is that something that we care about? Or at some point, if she doesn't begin to answer questions, does that become an issue for voters?

WILLIAMS: I think it's a big issue right now, because the real issue with Sarah Palin is experience. And I think it's something like more than 50 percent of American voters say, you know, she doesn't have the experience to be vice president of the United States.

That's not a small matter when you have a 72-year-old in John McCain as president if you decide to make him your president. And so would you really trust America -- would you trust American foreign policy at a time when we're at war with terrorists -- would you trust American energy policy to Sarah Palin? And I just think most Americans are very doubtful about that, dubious.

You know, when you asked Brit about whether or not she makes a difference, I think she's made a difference in terms of T.V. ratings. Gosh, the Republican convention actually did better than the Barack Obama spectacular in Denver.

I think she's made a difference in terms of exciting the base, which is exactly what Bill Kristol was so pressing about. But you know what? This wasn't the intent of Rick Davis and the McCain campaign.

They were going after white women voters. And I don't think that they have been successful with that demographic. In fact, the fact that she is so opposed to abortion rights in the country, the fact that she's so for gun ownership, I think has turned off those people who might have been Hillary supporters.

KRISTOL: Well, you may think that, but the Rasmussen poll in which Obama was ahead by six points on Tuesday is now even. The Gallup poll in which Obama was ahead by eight points on Tuesday is now a two-point lead. So the pick of Palin seems to be doing just fine.

And some of those voters are coming over. It's not just the base. Those are not just the base. And in fact, the Rasmussen's poll -- women have moved -- Obama's edge among women has been cut in half, from about 14 points to about seven points.

We'll see what happens. It's early. But here's the key point. Here's the key point. When Palin was announced, the Obama campaign put out a snotty statement, a dismissive statement. "John McCain today has taken a former mayor of a town of 9,000 with no foreign policy experience and made her -- put her a heartbeat from the presidency."

What did David Axelrod, who's not a -- who's a very smart man, say to you today when you asked about Governor Palin? "We're not running against Governor Palin." What does that -- that tells you everything. They're scared to run against Governor Palin.

He would not take her on, and they realize they made a horrible mistake going after her and letting Obama get in a fight with Palin, which, of course, makes them -- who has more experience, the Democratic presidential candidate or the Republican vice presidential candidate?

They can't help but respond to the criticism but they have no clear way to do so without it appearing more accurate about Obama than the sitting Governor of Alaska. They just can't help themselves and that is the true beauty of this.

From a smart mid-western legal mind: it doesn't matter who brings it up...he loses either way...every time mccain hits obama on experience, obama can only hit back at palin, not mccain...and that is the bait...

Blowin' in the Wind

The wind is shifting, at least for now.

Rasmussen Reports: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, September 7, shows the race for the White House is tied.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%. Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

This past Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (see recent daily results).

Zogby International: Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.

Data from this poll is available here

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

Gallup: The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

Hhhmmm...

In the interest of full-disclosure it must be noted that I rarely take John Zogby's results overly serious since his ridiculousness during the 2004 campaign.

Make that 52

According to Lucille at an anonymous Alaska eatery, Sarah Palin described Senator Obama's victory over Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination with this little pretty:

"So Sambo beat the bitch!"

Somebody email Charles Martin about this...

An interesting comment I found floating around on what can only be described as an adolescent message board points out the unlikely nature of such a thing being true:

she has racist attitudes towards eskimos......so she married someone who is part eskimo. makes total sense doesn't it?

Yes indeed. And as to who exactly Lucille is and how credible she may or may not be, I think we're moving into Bill Burkett territory.

Dead Heat

It's 42-42 in this CBS poll:

A new national poll puts Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain in a dead heat - 42 percent to 42 percent - as they begin their two-month sprint to the Nov. 4 presidential election.

The CBS poll was conducted from Monday to Wednesday, before the GOP convention ended with McCain's speech Thursday night. It shows a convention week bounce for the Arizona senator, who trailed Obama by 8 points, 48 percent to 40 percent, in a CBS survey taken last weekend.

As a side note, conducted as it was through Wednesday it can't possibly have factored in reaction to the Governor's speech that night and takes no account of course of the Senator's acceptance speech on Thursday. So in a matter of days--and not even the most important two days of the Republican convention--Obama's bounce is gone?

He's just a bad candidate it would seem.

Then there's this:

Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll shows little overall movement in the topline numbers today, with two-thirds of responses coming after Sarah Palin’s blockbuster speech at the Republican convention. McCain trails now by one, and still by three when leaners are included. However, Rasmussen detects a movement in a key demographic that could spell disaster for Barack Obama

...

Two key shifts here are enthusiasm and women. The Democratic convention did not produce a significant enthusiasm bounce for Obama, but one appears to have developed for McCain, who needs it more. Women have apparently responded positively to the selection of Sarah Palin to the ticket, and McCain has halved the gender gap with a third of the respondents still having not heard her speech Wednesday.

It's tough to know for certain, but it's possible the ground is shifting in a big way.

And it only took a week...

Sarah Palin was announced as Senator McCain's VP pick a week ago. In that short time the Left has launched a thousand rumors...or so it seems.

According to this it's more like 51. Even so, that works out to about 7 a day. Kudos to Charles Martin for taking the time and effort to push back against the nonsense.

"Nitally Lions"

If Obama were white would he be lampooned as mercilessly as W? Probably not but who knows.

Love this though.



Barack Obama has put the Pennsylvania Republican delegates here in stitches over getting the name of the Penn State University mascot wrong today.
Not what you want to be doing in a state where the GOP is hammering you hard for being out of touch.

To most sports fans, they're the Nittany Lions.
Obama, during a stop in Pennsylvania today, called them the "Nitally lions" as he called on someone during a question-and-answer session.

Helpful Suggestions

This one from No Left Turns:

For Governor Palin’s Next Speech?

I’m from Alaska, or as Senator Obama calls it the 57th State.

Well, since somebody was apparently reading Jim Gerahty's mind earlier in the week I suppose it could happen...

Don't let facts get in the way of a good Meme...

Jim Lindgren did a little bit of analysis and reviewed Governor Palin's speech for...what?...the Sarcasm Quotient I guess we can call it. Interesting what he found vs. what we've been told:

If one compares Palin’s speech to Obama’s, it appears to me that they used similar amounts of sarcasm (not much), but Obama made considerably more extensive negative comments about McCain and Republican administrations than Palin did about Obama and Democrats. Palin’s negative comments, however, were on balance funnier, better written, and more pointed than Obama’s. Neither candidate’s comments were entirely fair in every characterization of their opponents’ positions.

By continuing to spread false memes about the nature of Sarah Palin's speech as if they were true, the press marches forward in the most biased season of political reporting I've seen since at least 1998.

Compare that to what you've heard about Palin's speech elsewhere.

Joe-Joe the Clown #1

What is certain to be the first of many posts, we have this from yesterday courtesy of the GOP's Biden Gaffe Tracker:

I changed my Mind...so sue Me!

This blog was founded in May 2005 in the wake of the infamous 'Gang of 14'. I was miffed. Really miffed. In fact, a lot of conservatives were.



As time went on I withdrew my membership in Blogs for McCain's Opponent due in part to our relocating back to California. That took away the time I was able to devote to such an effort and, more importantly, took me away from the nexus of McCain coverage in Phoenix.



When the presidential campaigning started in earnest last year I was a Romney supporter. He was smart, conservative and strong on my two biggest issues--security and economics. Far superior on the latter than any of the other Republican candidates in my opinion.

As the year progressed, I noted with some glee as other conservatives did as well, that the McCain campaign was broken--no money, no message and no traction. And I was glad.

When the Senator revived his candidacy and when voters began to make it clear that he was the choice of the Republican party at large, I wasn't happy. As reality overtook my hopes for the Republican nomination I reconciled myself to the McCain nomination.

Watching the ongoing circus in the DNC it was clear that, despite whatever disagreements I might have with the man and his policy positions, a practical conservative Republican can not and I would not vote for the Democratic nominee. Having said all that I was resigned to pulling the lever, reluctantly, for John McCain.

I, like many others, have changed my outlook on this campaign and this ticket as a result of the VP pick.

I will talk up this ticket, I will work in my community--nay, even organize it--for this ticket and I will blog for this ticket.