Whither the Bounce?

It's there in all the polls. Or should I say, it's not there in all the polls anymore. Where'd it go?

Here's one crack at answering the question.

It's the Momentum, Stupid

It's everywhere in the polls...

The RealClearPolitics Average now has McCain up 2.4%. Small, yes. Statistically speaking, insignificant. But the real story is the direction. It's all one-way.

This image was pilfered from an Ann Althouse post and graphs one particular question from a Gallup poll. It's there too.

Blowin' in the Wind

The wind is shifting, at least for now.

Rasmussen Reports: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, September 7, shows the race for the White House is tied.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%. Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

This past Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (see recent daily results).

Zogby International: Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.

Data from this poll is available here

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

Gallup: The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

Hhhmmm...

In the interest of full-disclosure it must be noted that I rarely take John Zogby's results overly serious since his ridiculousness during the 2004 campaign.

Dead Heat

It's 42-42 in this CBS poll:

A new national poll puts Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain in a dead heat - 42 percent to 42 percent - as they begin their two-month sprint to the Nov. 4 presidential election.

The CBS poll was conducted from Monday to Wednesday, before the GOP convention ended with McCain's speech Thursday night. It shows a convention week bounce for the Arizona senator, who trailed Obama by 8 points, 48 percent to 40 percent, in a CBS survey taken last weekend.

As a side note, conducted as it was through Wednesday it can't possibly have factored in reaction to the Governor's speech that night and takes no account of course of the Senator's acceptance speech on Thursday. So in a matter of days--and not even the most important two days of the Republican convention--Obama's bounce is gone?

He's just a bad candidate it would seem.

Then there's this:

Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll shows little overall movement in the topline numbers today, with two-thirds of responses coming after Sarah Palin’s blockbuster speech at the Republican convention. McCain trails now by one, and still by three when leaners are included. However, Rasmussen detects a movement in a key demographic that could spell disaster for Barack Obama

...

Two key shifts here are enthusiasm and women. The Democratic convention did not produce a significant enthusiasm bounce for Obama, but one appears to have developed for McCain, who needs it more. Women have apparently responded positively to the selection of Sarah Palin to the ticket, and McCain has halved the gender gap with a third of the respondents still having not heard her speech Wednesday.

It's tough to know for certain, but it's possible the ground is shifting in a big way.